Categories
Artificial Intelligence

2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

We researched several predictions for the 2023 hurricane season and portions of the article will include what ended up happening. How many storms were there? What were some of the most powerful hurricanes? Are there any metrics that we can use to describe the season? Which storms caused the most damage? We will explore and report on these questions. 

Title: A Recap of the 2023 Hurricane Season: Unprecedented Devastation and Resilience

Introduction:

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was one for the record books, marked by unprecedented devastation, widespread impacts, and remarkable resilience. From the bustling shores of the United States to the tranquil islands of the Caribbean, the season left a lasting impact on communities, economies, and the environment.

Hurricane Formation and Intensity:

The 2023 season was characterized by a high number of named storms, with several rapidly intensifying into major hurricanes. Warm sea surface temperatures, weak vertical wind shear, and other favorable atmospheric conditions contributed to the formation and strengthening of these powerful storms.

Hurricane Impacts:

The impacts of the 2023 hurricane season were far-reaching, affecting not only coastal regions but also inland areas through heavy rainfall, flooding, and tornadoes. The socioeconomic consequences were significant, with billions of dollars in damages to infrastructure, agriculture, and property.

Resilience and Recovery Efforts:

Amidst the destruction, stories of resilience and community solidarity emerged, as individuals and organizations rallied to support those affected by the hurricanes. From emergency response teams to local volunteers, efforts to provide aid and facilitate recovery were widespread and heartening.

Climate Change and Preparedness:

The 2023 hurricane season underscored the urgency of addressing climate change and implementing effective preparedness measures. As global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including hurricanes, are expected to increase, necessitating proactive adaptation strategies.

Looking Ahead:

As we reflect on the 2023 hurricane season, it is crucial to learn from the past and prepare for the future. By investing in resilient infrastructure, enhancing early warning systems, and promoting sustainable practices, we can mitigate the impacts of future hurricanes and safeguard vulnerable communities.

Conclusion:

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season stands as a stark reminder of the immense power and destructive potential of nature. Yet, it also serves as a testament to the resilience and compassion of humanity in the face of adversity. As we move forward, let us heed the lessons learned and work together to build a more resilient and sustainable future.

Links:

1. National Hurricane Center https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

2. FEMA – Hurricane Preparedness https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes

Categories
Artificial Intelligence Climate Change Hurricanes

Voice of the Storm: MMS TTS for Global Weather Alerts

A futuristic weather station.

In the vanguard of meteorological innovation, ‘hurricane-tts‘ emerges as a monumental integration of advanced technologies, setting new standards in delivering critical storm alerts. At its core, the project harnesses the massively multilingual Text-to-Speech capabilities from Facebook AI Research (FAIR), transforming weather data into spoken word with unparalleled linguistic diversity. Coupled with the analytical prowess of ChatGPT 3.5, the system analyzes and translates complex meteorological information into actionable insights, ensuring that each forecast is not just informative but also readily comprehensible.

This confluence of Python’s programming agility, cloud computing’s scalable resources, and the interactive environment of Jupyter Notebooks culminates in a robust, serverless framework that operates with seamless efficiency. ‘hurricane-tts’ not only democratizes access to life-saving information but also epitomizes the synergy of AI and cloud technologies in crafting a real-time, user-centric response to nature’s unpredictability. It stands as a testament to the power of collaborative technology in safeguarding communities and heralding a new era of disaster preparedness.

AL22 2023 | ChatGPT 3.5 | hurricane-tts | CC0

Above is Storm AL222023, identified and forecasted by a large language model. Below, you’ll find audio advisories for this tropical storm in both Spanish and English. This service has been designed considering the storm’s potential impact on regions from Cuba and Haiti to Puerto Rico. The choice of Spanish as one of the languages is based on geolinguistic analysis and geographic coordinates. Updates on the storm’s status, forecasts, and accompanying audio are generated hourly, ensuring cost-effective and timely information.

Spanish

English

IO7, IO94 2023 | ChatGPT 3.5 | hurricane-tts | CC0

Hindi

Furthermore, our advanced multilingual deep learning model empowers this system to serve the most vulnerable regions worldwide. An example in Hindi demonstrates its current capability in hundreds of languages, with plans to expand to over 1000 languages shortly. The model has identified more than 4000 languages suitable for integration into this system. Notably, the AI has also generated an audio advisory in Bengali. This project’s text-to-speech feature is specifically designed to consider human-technology interactions globally, supporting areas with lower literacy rates to ensure broad accessibility and understanding.


Here’s a peek at the more recent screenshots if you wanted to compare the forecasts. Open sourced app is available here: Github

By Hammad Usmani

AL22 2023 + 12 hours

IO7, IO94 + 12 hours
Categories
Artificial Intelligence Climate Change Hurricanes

Unveiling the Fury of Hurricane Idalia: A Meteorological Marvel

Source

Idalia, a Category 3 hurricane, made landfall with a relentless fury, submerging homes, transforming streets into rivers, and leaving a trail of destruction in its wake. As the Southeastern coastal states grappled with its aftermath, the unique path and sheer power of Hurricane Idalia challenged preconceived notions. They underscored the need for continued research and preparedness in an era of changing climate patterns.

Devastation Unleashed: Hurricane Idalia Strikes Florida’s Gulf Coast

In an influential early morning strike on Wednesday, Hurricane Idalia landed just east of Tallahassee, Florida, at 7:45 a.m. The Category 3 storm left a path of destruction, causing significant damage along many of the Gulf Coast. Florida’s coastal communities grapple with the aftermath of this formidable hurricane.

Effects of the Cyclone

The extent of power outages in Florida is nothing short of staggering, with nearly 3.8 million households and businesses plunged into darkness, accounting for approximately 36 percent of the state’s total.

As the eye of the storm ventured further inland, the powerful onslaught continued. High winds mercilessly tore through the landscape, obliterating signs, propelling sheet metal through the air, and toppling towering trees. Starting at 7:45 a.m., Keaton Beach experienced a major landfall, marking the arrival of Category 3 hurricane, Idalia. The storm charged strong winds of nearly 125 mph (205 kph).

Idalia’s Impact on Florida: A State in Turmoil

As the first light of dawn broke over Florida, the extent of the devastation wrought by Hurricane Idalia became painfully clear. Florida was in a real mess, with destruction all around. Despite the storm’s ferocity, there were no confirmed storm-related deaths as of midday on Wednesday. However, Florida bore the unmistakable scars of Idalia’s relentless rampage.

Governor’s Alarming Address

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis stepped forward to address the state in a news conference, his tone reflective of the gravity of the situation. He voiced concerns regarding the potential storm-related casualties, underscoring the challenges first responders and communities faced. Governor DeSantis’ grave concerns resonated across Florida as the state braced for the aftermath of Idalia’s fury.

Category 2, Unyielding Force

Though downgraded to a Category 2 storm, Idalia showed no signs of relenting. The storm’s powerful winds and never-ending rain hammered Florida, leaving a path of destruction behind. Streets were inundated, transforming into treacherous waterways that disrupted daily life and posed significant safety risks. The resilience of Category 2 Idalia served as a chilling reminder of the destructive power of hurricanes.

Boats Adrift, Communities in Crisis

Boats that were once securely anchored now bobbed helplessly in the storm’s grip. Idalia’s fury affected boats, setting them adrift. They were left at the storm’s mercy. The damage was huge, and communities struggled afterward. They had to start the tough process of recovery and rebuilding.

A Deluge Foretold

The National Hurricane Center’s warning of Idalia’s impending deluge added another concern to Florida’s mounting woes. The forecast of 10 to 20 inches of rain across the Florida panhandle and into parts of Georgia and southeastern South Carolina set the stage for mass power outages. As Idalia continued its path of destruction, power grids faltered under the weight of the storm, plunging communities into darkness and further compounding the challenges faced by residents and authorities.

In the Uncertain Embrace of Idalia

During this meteorological onslaught, Florida found itself in the grip of uncertainty. The true damage remained a mystery, keeping the state and its people in suspense. Florida was in a bit of a pickle as it worked hard to recover, showing the grit and guts of its residents in tough times. In the wake of Idalia’s fury, Florida stood united, ready to rebuild and recover, demonstrating the strength of community and the indomitable human spirit in the face of nature’s most formidable challenges.

The Unprecedented Nature of Hurricane Idalia

Idalia’s impact on Florida was nothing short of remarkable. The hurricane landed in the sparsely populated Big Bend region, where the Florida Panhandle gracefully curves into the peninsula. This unconventional trajectory left meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Tallahassee astounded, leading them to label Idalia as “an unprecedented event.”

What made this distinction even more notable was that no significant hurricanes had ever traversed the bay adjacent to the Big Bend. In hurricane measurement, Idalia’s journey was unusual and left a mark on Florida’s weather history. It was a unique and extraordinary storm, challenging what we thought we knew.

The Strength and Path of Idalia

Idalia’s intensity grew significantly on its journey toward Florida. It started as a Category 2 system on Tuesday and rapidly escalated to a Category 3 storm on Wednesday before peaking as a Category 4 hurricane. It then weakened slightly but remained a potent force.

By late Tuesday night, Idalia had already reached the upper end of Category 2 with sustained winds of 110 miles per hour (177 kph). It was projected to be categorized as an intense Category 4 hurricane,   reaching dangerous levels due to the forecasted maximum sustained winds of at least 130 mph (209 kph) upon landfall.

One of the most concerning aspects of Idalia was the wind-driven high tides hitting the coasts of barrier islands and other low-lying areas along the coast. Governor DeSantis told folks in risky areas to follow evacuation orders and head for higher ground. He warned that the storm surge could lead to very dangerous floods.

The Path Forward and Impact on Surrounding States

As of 2 p.m. EDT, Idalia had crossed Florida’s coastline over the Big Bend region and was headed northeast toward Charleston, South Carolina. The National Hurricane Center forecasted that Idalia would become a tropical storm while moving over northeastern South Carolina and North Carolina coasts on Wednesday night and early Thursday.

Flash and river floods were forecasted throughout Georgia and the Carolinas through Thursday, posing significant challenges to affected communities. Tragically, two motorists died in separate rain-related crashes on Wednesday morning.

The Role of Climate Change and Warm Ocean Temperatures

According to NOAA, the region will experience frequent hurricanes, partly because of the rising ocean temperatures. The meteorological department and rescue team will be far busier in 2023 than initially predicted.

The revelation that this hurricane season was projected to be significantly more active than initially forecast is partly attributed to the rising temperatures of our oceans. This declaration underscored the mounting connection between climate change and hurricanes’ heightened frequency and intensity.

As our planet’s climate keeps shifting, the oceans are heating up, especially in the tropics. These elevated ocean temperatures provide the ideal fuel for hurricanes, enabling them to gather strength and intensify rapidly.

The 2023 hurricane season, which extends until November 30, has August and September as its traditional peak months, further exacerbating the concerns of meteorologists and climate scientists.

Insurance and Economic Implications

Hurricane Idalia’s devastating impact extends beyond the immediate destruction it wrought on communities. The economic repercussions are staggering, and UBS bank’s estimates cast a grim shadow over the financial landscape. Their calculations reveal average insured losses of $9.36 billion in Florida alone, signifying the immense financial toll on the state.

However, the bleak picture doesn’t end there. The probability of losses exceeding $4.05 billion stands at a sobering 50%, highlighting the precarious financial position many insurers and policyholders find themselves in.

There’s a problematic 10% potential that losses could balloon to a startling $25.6 billion, negatively affecting the state’s economy and citizens.

Based on data as of August 28, these forecasts highlight the unpredictability of a hurricane’s economic aftermath. These highlight how crucial it is to have thorough plans and quick reactions in place to ease the financial strain on people and communities dealing with the aftermath of big disasters.

Wrapping up

As we reflect on the relentless force of Hurricane Idalia, it becomes clear that our understanding of weather phenomena and their consequences is of utmost importance. At fluids.ai, we remain committed to providing the public with accurate and unbiased weather information, helping communities prepare for and respond to such natural disasters.

In the aftermath of Idalia’s devastating impact, more than ever, it is evident that the work of organizations like fluids.ai is vital in ensuring that the public remains informed and empowered in the face of meteorological marvels like Hurricane Idalia.

Hurricane Idalia reminds us of the importance of ongoing research, readiness, and taking action to face the increasing challenges brought by extreme weather in our changing climate. It’s a call to be prepared.

Categories
Artificial Intelligence Hurricanes

Harnessing Generative AI for Innovative Hurricane Visualization

Assisted by Midjourney. Numbers represent category from the Saffir-Simpson scale.
fluids.ai map storm EP52023 on Aug. 10th, 2023 6:00 PM
fluids.ai map storms WP62023, WP72023 on Aug. 10th, 2023 6:00 PM

Visualising the intensity and progression of hurricanes on digital platforms has seen an impressive upgrade. A diligent researcher has created a set of distinctive icons that represent the categories of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. They are hosted on a GitHub repository called hurricane-net and can be found here.

These icons, interestingly, are not just static images. They are imbued with Generative AI tech called Midjourney to create dynamic backgrounds. Midjourney was chosen over other generative models like Stable Diffusion and Dall E due to its superior performance in generating diverse yet cohesive imagery.

The choice of the Saffir-Simpson scale as a basis for these icons was driven by its color scheme, which transitions from yellow to red as the severity increases from category 1 through 4. Category 5, signifying the most potent storms, is represented by the color purple. The researcher ingeniously crafted the backgrounds of the icons to echo these color scales, resulting in an immediate visual understanding of a storm’s intensity.

These icons serve a greater purpose than just aesthetic enhancement. They play a vital role in the fluids.ai application, where they help visualize live global tropical storms. The variability of the storm’s intensity over time, which can often be dramatic, can now be visualized effortlessly, enhancing the user experience in emergency scenarios.

The icons’ innovative design allows users to gain a quick understanding of the storm’s severity as it approaches the shore, adding a new dimension to how we perceive and react to such natural disasters.

Moreover, the source code is readily available to developers who wish to contribute or adapt these icons for their projects, exemplifying the spirit of open-source and collaborative problem-solving.

Indeed, the intersection of art, technology, and meteorology, as demonstrated in this project, offers a fresh perspective on disaster visualization, making information more digestible and impactful for all.

For those interested in getting a firsthand glimpse of this innovative blend of meteorology and Generative AI, the researcher has shared a series of web links. The ‘no cat’ link showcases an icon sans any category, offering a foundational visualization of a storm that can be accessed here. Following this, as the intensity escalates from ‘cat 1’ to ‘cat 5’, the visual vibrancy and gravity of the situation can be discerned clearly. The icons for the respective categories can be seen through these links: cat 1, cat 2, cat 3, cat 4, and the most intense, cat 5. Each link offers a window into the unique visual representation, embodying the power and scale of tropical storms.


 
 
 

Categories
Artificial Intelligence Climate Change Hurricanes

2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions

              

Prompt Used: A satellite image of the Atlantic Hurricane


Caption: A Satellite Image Of Hurricane Generated Via DALL-E

The 2022 hurricane season was cataclysmic and one of the most potent events to be ever recorded.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recorded a total of 14 storms, out of which 8 turned into ruinous hurricanes, and 2 were lethal and baneful.

Florida hit rock bottom with total damage worth approximately $112.9 billion, and the loss of flora and fauna was beyond comparison. Hurricane Ian, as per the storm statistic, was the third most expensive hurricane that wiped out Florida after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

2022 has shaken everyone from the core, and people are now bracing themselves for the seasonal hurricane as 2023 is considered to bring larger devastation than customary. Certain research is being conducted regarding El Nino, and research scientist Phil Klotzbach stated that the 2023 hurricane season would be warm and moist with strong winds blowing at a more than average speed

  • Activities in the Atlantic Basin

Prompt Used: Digital Art Of Atlantic Hurricane Basin


Caption: Digital Art Of The Atlantic Hurricane Season Generated Via DALL-E

Atlantic Hurricane season usually starts on June 1st and continues till November 30th. The area that falls under the Atlantic basin covers the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. 

The researchers at North Carolina State University predicted that the 2023 Atlantic Season would comprise a total of 11 to 15 storms. Out of these, six to eight storms can be menacing, and two to three storms can turn into lethal and deadly hurricanes. 

Activities in the Gulf Of Mexico will also be significant. Out of the 11 to 15 storms that are likely to form in the entire Atlantic Basin, three to five storms have a high chance of originating in the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, one to three storms have the potential to become a crucial hurricanes, and zero to one may turn into a life-threatening and ghastly hurricane. 

  • El Niño as a Primary Factor

Colorado State University has four models that study the pattern of storms and hurricanes, incorporating 25 to 40 years of data and evaluating certain aspects like –

Prompt Used: A 3D Oil Pastel Render Of Low-Pressure Forming On The Ocean


Caption: Formation Of Low Pressure On Atlantic Basin Generated Via DALL-E

The temperature of the Atlantic Sea surface

  • Pressures of the sea level
  • Changes in the speed and direction of the wind flow in accordance with the atmospheric height

El  Niño is defined as a band of warm water, usually found in the ocean and responsible for causing rainfall and temperature change globally. This happens due to the influence of either high or low air pressure. This phenomenon can last for up to four years. However, in some cases, it also lasted for about seven years.  

The team at CSU considered El Niño to be the primary factor responsible for changes in the 2023 Atlantic season. There are chances of hurricanes being torn apart while forming. El Niño can significantly increase the upper layers of the western winds that flow across the Caribbean and enter the tropical Atlantic zone. 

The CSU team stressed the uncertain facts related to the 2023 Atlantic season. Certain conflicting changes were noticed between the warm tropical and subtropical Atlantic seasons and a powerful El Niño. 

The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season is considered to be approximately 80 % of all the seasons between 1991 to 2020 and will resemble traits like the ones in 1969, 2004, 2009, 2012, and 2015, stated Klotbach (Research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science)

The wind speed of at least 6 hurricanes out of the total 11 to 15 hurricanes is considered to be 74 mph, and there are chances of two hurricanes to turn into Category 3 or higher with a wind speed of 111mph. 

  • The Hot Spots of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Another aspect of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is the occasional landslides that cease all communications. A number of studies were conducted that stated a couple of hotbeds have higher chances of getting affected in this hurricane season.

Prompt Used: A Water Colour Digital Art Of Coastal Areas During A Hurricane 

Caption: Image Of A Coastal Area Hit By A Hurricane Generated Via DALL-E

  1. Eastern Coast of Florida

Hurricane Nicole lashed the shores of the Treasure Coast and made its way to Central Florida on November 10th, 2022. This area has gone through a revival during the winter. However, the chances of landslides are maximum in this area.

Estimated dates: 30th May till 3rd June, 20th to 24th July and lastly between 8th o 13th September.

  1. Western Coast of Florida

Low pressure encircled the Gulf of Mexico and entered Florida on November 1st, 2022. The situation on the western and eastern coasts of Florida is similar, and the chances of landslides are maximum in Pan Florida. 

 Estimated dates: 22nd to 25th May, 12th to 15th July, and 31st August to 4th September.

  1. Carolina Coast

A considerable amount of low pressure was noticed in the coastal waters of the Atlantic region on 22nd October and 23rd October 2022. As a result, this area poses equal threats for landslides and water clogging.

Estimated dates: 14th to 20th May, 3rd to 10th July, and 23rd to 30th August.

  • Hurricane Prediction as per the NOAA

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) states their predictions and views related to each year’s Atlantic Season during the month of May. 

The NOAA conducts its research by considering the hurricane season forecast for the past 30 years (1992-2021 approximately). 

Prompt Used: Pop Art Of A Tornado Uprooting Trees


Caption: Image Of A Deadly Hurricane Uprooting Trees Generated Via DALL-E

The hurricane season usually starts around June and lasts through November. However the gradual climate change can alter the course, and it may begin earlier or later, depending on the current weather conditions. 

The intensity of major Hurricanes is generally defined with the help of the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This scale only takes into account the wind speed, jeopardy, and the wind surge but not the rainfall accounted.

Based on this scale, hurricanes are divided into certain categories:

Name Speed
CATEGORY 174-95mph
CATEGORY 296-110mph
CATEGORY 3111-129mph
CATEGORY 4130-156mph
CATEGORY 5 157+ mph

Although the wind speed of each category of hurricane differs, nevertheless it should not be taken lightly. A category 1 hurricane poses a threat to mankind, local flora, and fauna. 

  • Prepare for the Hurricane Season

Prompt Used: Photorealistic Art Of HumansTrapped Under A Collapsed Bridge

Caption: Humans Trapped Under A Collapsed Bride Generated Via DALL-E

As the hurricane season slowly approaches, it is imperative to safeguard the safety of your family, pets, and property. 

Here are a few tips and tricks on how you can prepare for the upcoming hurricane season:

  1. Evacuation: Always be prepared for the worst-case scenario. Keep a bag handy with medicines, flashlights, clothes, a first aid kit, and emergency supplies. Search the local routes for safe evacuation and find a place where you can secure your stay.
  2. Safeguarding your residence: Another important preparedness factor is safeguarding your home. Reinforce the walls, windows, doors, and roof. For those items that cannot be carried inside, make sure to secure them with an anchor.
  3. Subscribe to notifications and alerts: If you are staying in an area that has faced the wrath of hurricanes almost every season, it is high time that you sign up for the alerts and notifications. At the same time, you can opt for the NOAA weather radio. 

Prompt Used: 3D Cyborg Art Of Hurricane Alert Notification On Mobile Phones


Caption: Image Of Hurricane Alert Notification Generated Via DALL-E

  1. Safeguarding important documents: Keep all your important documents(identity proof, driver’s license, medical records, insurance cards, passports, etc.) inside a waterproof container
  2. Speed dial your emergency contacts: If a hurricane hits, you won’t get much time to prepare yourself in the 11th hour. Thus to ensure your safety, stay updated with the school, work, doctors, rescue services, and family members.
  • Hurricane Insurances

A hurricane with raging wind and torrential downpours can cause massive damage to your property. Therefore, you should be acquainted with two or three policies:

  1. Flood Insurance: The customary home insurance does not cover the perils of flood damage. Therefore, to save yourself a huge amount of money caused due to flood water damage, sign up for the flood insurance program through the National Flood Insurance Program, or any other private insurance company in your area.
  2. Home Insurance: Home insurances cover the damages that are caused by the main wind. That is if the roof gets damaged due to gusty wind, allowing the rainwater to enter the house, home insurance will compensate for the loss to a considerable amount. 
  1. Wind Insurance: 19 states have a hurricane deductible rate that ranges from 1 % to 10% of your residence’s insured value. You might have to get yourself a different wind insurance plan through the different State insurance plans. 
  2. Vehicle insurance: Vehicle insurance will compensate you for the damage caused to your vehicle due to the toppling of trees, howling winds, and rainfall. 

Conclusion:

Prompt Used: Digital Art Of People United During Flood


Caption: An Image of People Helping Each Other During Flood Generated Via DALL-E

When the hurricane season approaches, it is always suggested to take all the precautionary measures. Stay indoors as much as you can. Stock up on groceries, batteries, and clean water as much as possible. 

Nature is unpredictable, therefore it is always better to be a step ahead and safeguard your security. 

*****


****If you too want to generate images via AI, click on https://openai.com/product/dall-e-2

References:

  1. Metz, J. (2023, April 17). Experts Predict “Slightly Below Average” 2023 Hurricane Season. Forbes Advisor. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/homeowners-insurance/2023-hurricane-season/ 
  1. https://phys.org/news/2023-04-hurricane-season.html 
  1. Wsj. (2023, April 14). 2023 Hurricane Season Predicted to Be Below Average After a Costly 2022 | Mint. Mint. https://www.livemint.com/science/2023-hurricane-season-predicted-to-be-below-average-after-a-costly-2022-11681461513200.html 
  1. Weather, F. (2023, April 14). Experts predict slightly below-average hurricane season in Atlantic due to expected El Niño influences. New York Post. https://nypost.com/2023/04/14/experts-predict-slightly-below-average-hurricane-season-in-atlantic-due-to-expected-el-nino-influences/ 
  1. 2023 Hurricane Season Forecast. (n.d.). Almanac.com. https://www.almanac.com/content/hurricane-forecast 
  1.  Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast 2023. (2023, March 2). StormGeo. https://www.stormgeo.com/weather/articles/atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/2022-full-forecast/ 

*****

Categories
Artificial Intelligence Climate Change

Women’s Contributions To Meteorological and Atmospheric Sciences Throughout Time

There is an effort to improve women’s ability to access technological advancements, knowledge, scientific literacy, and technology-related training, as well as to uplift the stature of female researchers and technologists at the international, national, and local levels. Ensuring all women have equitable access to scientific and technical knowledge is essential. The priority should be to strengthen women’s roles as scientists, researchers,  and technologists.  There should be increased contribution and participation of women in meteorological and climatic decision-making.

Professional women working in meteorological and atmospheric sciences can serve as an inspiration to young girls and women to seek professions in science, particularly in meteorology, climatology, and hydrology.

Executive Summary

Women have significantly influenced worldwide environmental analysis and global warming research and policy. Many female scientists, decision-makers, and campaigners are among them. Women scientists have contributed significantly to important scientific assessments like the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and they are largely represented at significant international transformation committee meetings of the International Council for Science (ICSU) and the US National Academy of Sciences. International climate policy has seen significant leadership contributions from women. For instance, former Irish President Mary Robinson is the UN Special Envoy on Climate Change, and Christiana Figueres is the Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which oversees international climate discussions.

Reasons in Favor of Women in Science and the Environment

Women may also take more participatory processes, especially in deliberations, and may pay more attention to marginalized people and the natural environment. It is argued that when women are underrepresented in academia and decision-making, the world fails to utilize its full human capabilities, which is needed for issues as urgent as climate change.

Women play crucial responsibilities in managing resources like water, forests, and energy, and they take the lead in campaigns to conserve the environment, which has made gender a problem.

In order to promote gender equality, social justice, and the inspiration of young women to pursue professions in science, there has been a broad concern about the need to emphasize the work of women as well as include more women on significant committees. This echoes broader discussions about the obstacles to women’s involvement and the requirement for women to “Flex in” positions of leadership.

International Climate Policy and Women

The Future We Want, the final report of the Rio+20 Conference on Sustainable Development, acknowledged the necessity of removing obstacles to women’s full and equal participation in management and decision-making, as well as the need to increase the number of women in positions of leadership. In a report produced by UN Women, the Mary Robinson Foundation for Climate Justice, the Global Gender and Climate Alliance, and the UNFCCC, it is acknowledged that structural disparities prevent women from being represented in climate science, negotiations, and policies. It also calls for more gender equality in the UNFCCC and national delegations.

Image Of female weather researchers generated via Stability-AI

Let’s have a look at some of the outstanding achievers in the fields of  meteorological and atmospheric sciences: 

June Bacon-Bercey 

June is a pioneer with a long list of “firsts” to her credit. She boasts the accolades of being the first African-American woman meteorological scientist and the first female television meteorologist in the US, according to Physics Today. She is also the first woman of African descent to get the esteemed Seal of Approval from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Bacon-Bercey graduated with a master’s degree from UCLA after earning her undergraduate degree from the University of Kansas. Bacon-Bercey, who has also held positions with the National Weather Service, NOAA, and the private sector, assisted in founding the American Meteorological Society Board on Women and Minorities, which she presided over more than two decades ago. She was also crucial in establishing a meteorology laboratory at Jackson State University, an exceptional historically black college or university (HBCU).

Dr. Joanne Simpson 

Joanne, a world-famous atmospheric scientist and one of NASA’s top weather experts during the past 30 years, passed away on March 4, 2010, at the George Washington University Hospital in Washington.

At NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, Simpson served as Chief Scientist Emeritus for Meteorology, Earth-Sun Exploration Division, until her retirement. She examined hurricanes and collaborated with a scientific team on clouds and mesoscale modeling. Around 190 scientific articles, she has written or co-written.

Ada Monzon

The first Puerto Rican woman meteorologist is Ada Monzon. She currently serves as WIPR TV and Univision Radio’s Chief Meteorologist for the Commonwealth. Ada joined the U.S. NWS Forecast Office in San Juan after receiving her M.S. in meteorology from Florida State University. There, she worked as a weather forecaster and a warning and preparedness meteorologist. Ada is the first woman in Puerto Rico to be an AMS Fellow and a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist.

Kathy Sullivan

As the first American woman to walk in space part of NASA, Kathy Sullivan managed the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and, in 2020, conducted an illustrious dive to the bottom of the ocean.

Sue Barrell

Sue Barrell holds an Astronomy Ph.D. from National Australian University. Sue pursued BSc in Physics from Canterbury University in New Zealand. She is a Meteorology Graduate Diploma as well from Meteorology Bureau. Sue is also a graduate of the Institute of Company Directors, Australia. 

She is a member  Council of Space Industry Innovation in Australia.  Sue also represents Australia as the Earth Observation Group’s principal delegate. (GEO). Finding the ideal balance between personal life and work has been her toughest problem. Her greatest accomplishments, in her opinion, were being selected as an Academy of Engineering and Technological Sciences Fellow in Australia and receiving a little portion of the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the IPCC. She advises young women to pursue a profession in meteorology because it is rewarding and potentially takes them abroad.

Barbara Tapia

Barbara Tapia is a Chilean Meteorological Service Senior Meteorologist. Barbara has headed the South American Climate Services Working Group. She has also coordinated the opening procedures of 2 WMO South American Regional Climate Centres. Her determination and desire to “do more” than what others have done led to her success. She urges young female scientists to maintain an open mind and pursue careers in meteorology.

Dr. Sri Woro Budiati Harijono 

The first female Geophysics and Meteorology Climatology Agency Director General was Dr. Sri Woro Budiati Harijono (BMKG). She now serves as a consultant to the Indonesian Republic’s Minister of Transportation. She considers the creation of the Tropical Cyclone Warning Center and the Early Tsunami Warning System in Indonesia to be her greatest accomplishments. She urges young women pursuing scientific careers to be lifelong learners and balance their personal and professional lives since she is most pleased with her children, who are also medical professionals.

Nadia Pinardi, a professor, is dedicated to science and how it can benefit people. She is a Bologna University associate Oceanography Professor and a Harvard University graduate in physics. She is co-president of the Joint Committee for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology She received the Fridtjof Nansen Prize for Oceanography from the European Geophysical Union in 2007 and the Roger Revelle Unesco Award in 2008. She thinks perseverance and good fortune are the keys to success.

Federica Rossi is a veteran researcher at the Institute of Biometeorology (IBIMET) of the National Research Council of Italy.  She is in charge of the working group on Ecophysiology, Micrometeorology,  and the  Productivity of Agricultural and Natural Systems. At the International Society of Horticultural Science Federica Rossi also represents Italy. She serves on the managing committees of Cost Actions 734, and Cost Actions 18. She has served as vice president of the WMO Committee for  Meteorology in the Agricultural sector.

Young women are strongly encouraged to seek out Vida Auguliene, She completed her diploma work at Vilnius University prior to having a number of affiliations at the LHS’s forerunner. She has coordinated numerous international and domestic initiatives and programs in addition to publishing a number of publications on meteorological and surrounding air quality-related topics. Her greatest contributions to both services and infrastructure of Lithuanian hydrometeorology, as well as her conviction that success comes from loving what you do, are her greatest accomplishments.

Agnes Kijazi was elected to the WMO Executive Council after rising through the ranks at the   Meteorological Service of Tanzania to become a Director General and the first female to hold this position from the Eastern  African Region. She enrolled in a meteorology undergraduate program in Nairobi in  1996, received her bachelor’s degree in the year 2000, and graduated with her Doctor of Meteorology in 2008. Although her profession has given her personal fulfillment, she is most pleased that she has helped to advance women in the field of science. She highlights the value of hard effort and encouragement from loved ones and relatives. 

Within the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Laura Furgione holds the position of second in command as the  Assistant Administrator at the Weather Services and Deputy Director at the NWS.  She is in charge of overseeing civilian weather activities on a routine basis for the USA, its dominions, bordering waterways, and ocean regions. In 2011 and 2013, she received two NOAA Administrator’s Awards, and in 2013, she was chosen to serve as the WMO’s permanent representative for the USA. She raises plenty of queries and participates in events extensively since she is enthusiastic and inquisitive about everything she does.

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*** If you want to generate AI images click on the link; https://replicate.com/stability-ai/stable-diffusion 

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References: 

  1. Women in Meteorology. (2018, January 17). World Meteorological Organization. https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/women-meteorology 
  2. Bolinger, B., & Jeromin, K. (2021, March 8). On International Women’s Day, these atmospheric scientists inspire us. Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/03/08/women-atmospheric-science/ 
  3. Shepherd, M. (2019, March 3). Four Women Who Changed The Field Of Meteorology. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/03/03/four-women-who-changed-the-field-of-meteorology/ 
  4. MacPhee, D., & Canetto, S. S. (2015). Women in Academic Atmospheric Sciences. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96(1), 59–67. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-12-00215.1 
Categories
Climate Change Hurricanes

ATMOSPHERIC FLOODS IN CALIFORNIA

Waterlogging and floods are menacing nuisances in California that continue to persist. 

Although atmospheric rivers may appear like something out of a travelogue, they can actually do a lot of harm.

Long waves that travel in the skies like rivers do on the ground arise when water dissipates into the atmosphere and is carried by the wind.

Both mountain snow and heavy rainfall may result from them.

California Plagued by Atmospheric Floods 

The torrential downpours in California this season are also in part due to atmospheric rivers.

Between December 31, 2022, and January 25, 2023, many atmospheric rivers in California triggered periods of intense rainfall that led to floods that impacted sections of Southern California, the Californian Central Coast, Northern California, and Nevada. Property damage caused by the flooding. It was the most deadly meteorological event to date in the United States, with as well as at least 22 fatalities.

Atmospheric rivers refer to storms that are similar to rivers up in the sky that discard colossal amounts of rainfall.

                              Image of Atmospheric Flood Generated via Stability-AI

This can cause floods and deluges even resulting in loss of property and immense risk to life. More possibilities include mudslides and landslides. 

What is the Pineapple Express? 

The Pineapple Express, a strip of water vapor that originates in Hawaii where warm conditions assist ocean waters evaporating into the sky, constitutes one of the most prominent atmospheric rivers.

Why is California most affected?

After entering the air, winds quickly transport the vapor onward, where it condenses and pours as snow or rainfall if it is raised when a front hits or crosses mountains.

It frequently sends rain to California and other western states, especially during the colder months of winter.

Atmospheric rivers can be up to 350 miles wide and 1,000 miles long (1,600 km). The federal government believes that atmospheric rivers contribute 50% of California’s average rainfall in the form of rain and snow.

          Satellite Image of Atmospheric Floods In California Generated via Stability-AI

But, the recent moisture plumes that have affected California have also coincided with other extreme weather, such as “bomb cyclones,” which is another name for a low-pressure system that is rapidly intensifying.

Thousands of households in California have been left without power and at least 35 persons have died as a result of these severe storms this year.

The West has had severe droughts, which have impacted the area’s capacity to absorb water, increasing the likelihood of flooding.

Because burn scars increase the likelihood of landslides, wildfires have also made some regions unstable.

At least 11 atmospheric rivers have already battered the state this season. Similar to a fire hose, an atmospheric river transports moisture from the air from the tropic to high elevations, where it dumps unrelenting rain or snow.

Current Situation In California

Currently, California is reeling from the ill effects of the 12th atmospheric flood that has been ravaging the state leaving thousands of people displaced and homeless. 

People have had to vacate their flooded homes and seek refuge elsewhere. 

According to CNN people’s lives have been washed down the river. 

Riverfront villages in central California were among the hardest hit over the weekend. Here, multiple tributaries distended by the overflow of rainfall and melting snow from nearby mountains were converted into raging rivers.

According to UCLA climatologist Daniel Swain, as the most recent storm approaches, he says, it’s not going to require an enormous amount of moisture to result in instantaneous overflow and increases in streams and rivers, and flooding throughout urban areas. 

Once the Pajaro River’s levee collapsed on Friday, more than 8,500 residents were required to leave. As flooding engulfed fields and agricultural communities, fifty individuals were saved.

The additional atmospheric river is making it harder to control the flooding, according to officials. Migrant farm laborers, many of whom were displaced, are ineligible for federal disaster aid. According to Luis Alejo, chairman of the Monterey county supervisory board, “over 20,000 acres of farm areas in Monterey county now will remain fallow owing to storm contamination of water, creating major employment losses and an influence on our nation’s food supply”.

           Image Of Deluge Caused due to the floods generated via Stability-AI

On Monday morning, more people were evacuated as a result of the Salinas River towards the south also overflowing. Residential streets were submerged, businesses were flooded, and portions of California’s iconic coastal Route 1 were underwater.

Northern Nevada saw avalanches, rockslides, and flooding as a result of the storms, and additional devastation is anticipated there in the days ahead. In a statement, Governor Joe Lombardo urged “all Nevadans to keep safe, travel slowly, and to follow all local advice all through the duration of this severe weather” and extended an announcement to cover northern regions as well as a handful of other counties.

               Image of people left homeless due to flood generated via Stability-AI

According to experts, the increasing occurrence and severity of these storms during periods of protracted drought are signs of human-caused climate change. The complexity of maintaining California’s scarce water supply while lowering flood and wildfire threats has intensified due to the shift from one extreme to the next.

Despite the fact that the atmospheric rivers often disrupted many Californians’ lives and caused damage to their homes and livelihoods, the subsequent rains have also helped ease the state’s protracted drought.

Only the atmospheric river from last week broke rainfall data records in Santa Barbara, Santa Maria, and Los Angeles.

The Southern California Water Board has suspended urgent drought conservation efforts for more than 7 million people due to the excessive rain.

Floods mitigated the drought situation 

According to the United States Drought Monitor, the amount of California that is currently experiencing a severe drought has decreased from 80.6% barely three months ago to barely 8% this week. Only slightly more than a third of the state is still experiencing drought.

Conclusion

Back-to-back atmospheric rivers may be just as problematic as they are helpful since the water from one storm does not have time to flow or absorb into the ground before another storm drops more. Rain and snow are typically welcome sights in the drought-stricken state.

Further atmospheric rivers are anticipated to slam the region in the second portion of March as it works to recoup from the flooding and fallen trees.

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Generate similar images by clicking on https://replicate.com/stability-ai/stable-diffusion 

References  : 

  1. Levinson-King, B. R. (2023, March 13). California weather: What are the atmospheric rivers? BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64217329
  2. Singh, M. (2023, March 14). More ‘atmospheric river’ storms to sweep across California after days of rain and floods. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/13/california-weather-atmospheric-river-flooding 
  3. Salahieh, N., Shackelford, R., & Yan, H. (2023a, March 20). Another atmospheric river will thrash storm-ravaged California, threatening more flooding and hurricane-force wind gusts. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/20/weather/california-atmospheric-river-monday/index.html
  4. Borunda, A. (2023, March 13). ‘Rivers in the sky’ are why California keeps flooding. Environment. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/atmospheric-river-flood-rain-california-explainer 
Categories
Climate Change Hurricanes

 Current and Potential Future Aftermath of Cyclone Freddy 

Cyclone Freddy was a very fierce, surprisingly chronic, high-octane, and lethal storm that made its way across the Southern part of the Indian Ocean for almost six weeks in March and February 2023.


Satellite image of cyclone Freddy generated via Stability-AI

What Determined the Intensity of Cyclone Freddy?

To determine if Tropical Cyclone Freddy has surpassed the record for the most prolonged tropical cyclone ever, the International Meteorological Organization has established an expert committee. It was an officially designated tropical cyclone over 34 days, traveling more than 8,000 kilometers across the South Indian Ocean. An average entire North Atlantic hurricane season’s worth of energy is represented by the cumulative cyclone energy (an indicator used to assess the energy delivered by a tropical cyclone).

The Effects of Cyclone Freddy 

There are significant socioeconomic and humanitarian effects, but National Meteorological and Hydrological Services’ precise early warnings and synchronized disaster management on the ground saved even more casualties, underscoring the critical significance of Early Warnings for All. Early unverified sources mentioned 190 fatalities.

On March 11, Freddy made landfall in the province of Zambezia in northern Mozambique, as reported by the National Meteorological Hydrological Service (INAM). This is Freddy’s second time touching down in Mozambique.

Large areas have been affected by destructive winds, storm surges, and extremely heavy rains, notably Northeast Zimbabwe, Southeast Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique.

Floods as a result of Cyclone Freddy generated via Stability-AI

It is anticipated that there will be 200 to 300 mm of rain overall, with as much as 400 to 500 mm falling over Mozambique’s landing zone and in the mountain ranges, potentially leading to serious floods. In a handful of days, this is more rainfall than is typically received in a month.

And over 300 to 400 mm of rain might fall in Malawi over 48 hours, resulting in flash floods and extensive flooding. People were warned to relocate to higher ground, heed any evacuation orders, avoid rivers, and migrate to higher ground by Malawi’s Directorate of Climate Change and Meteorological Services. It issued a warning about the possibility of electrical lines, pit latrines, and buildings collapsing.

Flooding from Freddy’s initial passage and from high seasonal rains, which result in overflowing rivers and soggy terrain, will be made worse by the current downpour. In the previous month, rainfall in southern Mozambique was equivalent to further than a year’s worth, while in the previous week, rainfall in Madagascar was three times the monthly normal.

On February 21 and 24, respectively, the storm initially came ashore in Madagascar and Southern Mozambique. It brought torrential rainfall and flooding as it tracked across Mozambique and Zimbabwe for several days. After picking up energy from the warm waters, it headed more toward the southwestern coast of Madagascar before circling back towards the Mozambique Channel and back towards Mozambique.

People’s Perspectives 

“On the impacted populations, Freddy is having a significant socioeconomic and humanitarian impact. Although even one victim is one too many, the death toll has been kept to a minimum thanks to accurate forecasts, early warnings, and integrated disaster risk reduction efforts on the ground “said Dr. Johan Stander, director of WMO Services.

“The UN Early Warnings for Everyone initiative’s significance in ensuring that everyone is safeguarded over the next five years is once again highlighted by this. To do this and address hazards associated with severe weather and climate change, one of the most significant problems of our time, WMO is dedicated to cooperating with our partners “said he.

The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of Madagascar, Mozambique, and Malawi provided the WMO’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre La Réunion (Meteo-France) and the disaster management and humanitarian communities with early warnings of the storm, allowing for the pre-positioning of food supplies and evacuations.

Fatalities of the Cyclone 

According to the report from OCHA on 6 March, four people have perished in Madagascar as a result of the most recent rains, increasing the death toll from Freddy to at least 21 fatalities (10 in Mozambique and 11 in Madagascar). According to the Malawi Red Cross Association, 66 persons have passed away in Malawi, 93 have been injured, and 16 have been reported missing as of March 13th.

According to INGD, Mozambique’s national disaster management organization, 1.75 million people have been impacted, with over 8,000 having been relocated.

The storm that might break records Freddy was tremendous in terms of meteorology. A few hundred kilometers off the Australian northwest coast, Freddy was given the name by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which serves as a WMO regional center, on February 6.

Devastation as a result of Cyclone Freddy generated via Stability-AI

Freddy affected Mauritius and La Réunion on its long trek to Madagascar, traveling across the whole Indian Ocean from east to west. Such a super circumferential track is uncommon. Tropical Cyclones Leon-Eline and Hudah, including both 2000, which like 2023 was a la Nia year, were the most recent examples to be noted.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that increases in heavy precipitation and pluvial floods have been recorded and are anticipated for Madagascar and East Southern Africa. The frequency of categories 4-5 tropical cyclones, average tropical storm wind speeds, and related heavy precipitation are all expected to increase.

Worldwide, increasing average sea levels will cause the exceptional sea levels brought on by tropical cyclones to rise as well. An increase in tropical cyclone average intensity, storm surge size, and precipitation rates will make coastal dangers worse. On a worldwide basis, there needs to be more confidence that the incidence of tropical cyclones will vary in the future.

On February 21, 2023, at 7:20 p.m. local time, Tropical Cyclone Freddy hit land 18 miles north of the town of Mananjary on Madagascar’s eastern coast. It was the storm’s first landfall after more than 4,000 miles of a journey across the Indian Ocean since it initially formed on February 5 near Indonesia. The deadly storm has so far killed five people in addition to battering the island with severe storm surges, devastation-causing winds, and torrential rainfall. The storm passed to the north of Madagascar, causing some flooding and moderate devastation on the archipelago of Mauritius and La Reunion.

Unexpected Second Landfall 

The immensely lethal  Tropical Cyclone Freddy made an unprecedented second landfall that has killed more than 216 people in Mozambique and Malawi since the 12th of March 2023. This death toll is not the final and, might rise soon. 

Electricity, phone lines, and internet connectivity remain affected to date. 

              Deaths caused by  Cyclone Freddy generated via Stability-AI

Amnesty International, the renowned Human rights group has urged the global community to deploy resources and enhance aid, help rescue, and relied on efforts in these countries. 

Freddy first surfaced in and around Australia at the beginning of February and is determined to be the longest-running tropical cyclone. 

Cyclone Freddy has been wreaking havoc in the southern part of Africa by the end of February 2023. It also belabored the island countries of Madagascar and Reunion in February as it made its way across the Indian Ocean. 

Thousands of homes have been wrecked since the Tropical Cyclone made its landfall and several people continue to be displaced and stranded at rescue shelters. The cyclone is unlikely to cease and desist anytime soon. 

Stormy winds, severe rainfall, and raging floods have left many people without homes, solace, and livelihood. 

It is predicted that the cyclone will eventually cause destruction in eastern Africa as well. 

Wrapping Up

The cyclone is not the only concern affecting the people in Malawi and Mozambique. Cholera is also a devastating aftermath of this cruel twist of nature due to the disruption of clean water supply and shortage of edible food.

We can only hope and pray that the calamity ends soon and normalcy is restored.

Prayers for the ones affected (Image generated by Stability-AI)

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*** If you want to generate AI images click on the link; https://replicate.com/stability-ai/stable-diffusion 

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References: 

  1. NESDIS, February 23, 2023,

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Breaks Records before Lashing Madagascar 

 www.nesdis.noaa.gov 

  1. World Meteorological Organization, 10 March 2023

Tropical Cyclone Freddy may set new record 

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/tropical-cyclone-freddy-may-set-new-record

3. NPR. ORG March 14, 2023,
Cyclone Freddy wrecks Malawi and Mozambique, killing more than 200 people

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/14/1163380089/cyclone-freddy-malawi-mozambique-flooding-mudslides

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Categories
Artificial Intelligence Climate Change

Tropical Storm Cheneso Causes Loss of Life In Madagascar

Madagascans are facing the wrath of Cheneso, which severely impacted the country and left dozens homeless and stranded in floodwaters and under collapsed bridges. Starting on the 18th of January 2023, it continued till the 29th of January when the world was looking forward to a better year; the Madagascans found themselves in a tumultuous situation and were hoping for the storm to pass. 

Cheneso which started as a tropical cyclone, caused landfalls in several places in Madagascar and created a ruckus with its swirling winds along the island’s west coastline.

This image was generated by Stable Diffusion

Entire Madagascar was blasted with excessive rainfall that caused flooding with raging winds that lasted for ten days. Before the storm departed, it left 30 people dead, many people went missing, and the damage was significant. 

Cheneso: Its Origin

The RSMC La Reunion first monitored the origin of Cheneso on the 17th of January 2023. It was mainly formed due to a zone of disturbed weather patterns and soon gathered strength and turned into a tropical depression on the 18th of January. After causing landfall in various parts of Madagascar, the storm weakened and turned into an inland depression before entering the Mozambique Channel. 

Later on, the storm again strengthened into a tropical cyclone and moved southeast before it transitioned into a post-tropical depression on January 29, 2023. 

The Meteo France (MRF), traced the actual origin of Cheneso on the southern part of Diego Gracia on January 10, 2023. Soon the Joint Typhoon Center (JTWC) started closely monitoring the track of this particular storm. Their system could detect unfavorable environments that intensified the storm and also warm temperatures of the sea bed. 

This image was generated by Stable Diffusion

As the storm gradually intensified, it turned into a Category 1 storm which is equivalent to a tropical cyclone as per the Sarrif-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The defined curved pattern of the cyclone caused severe damage near the coast of Madagascar and escalated into a tropical cyclone after being stationary for almost 6 hours. 

As per the JTWC, the winds were 50 knots and with gusts of 65 knots. 

The Aftermath Of Cheneso

As per the Government Office for Risk and Disaster Management, Cheneso has killed almost 138 people, wiped out 1,24,000 homes, and displaced approximately 1,30,000 people. 

Cheneso reached Madagascar on 19th January 2023 as a typical storm that originated in the Indian Ocean. 

The storm put a halt on all sorts of communications and transportation. Schools, offices, and other healthcare facilities have been forced to shut down as the country is flooded with water. The scarcity of fresh food and water supply is another important factor associated with Cheneso. 

This image was generated by Stable Diffusion

A huge number of people were rendered homeless. According to a survey, 23,600 houses were flooded and approximately 500 homes were entirely destroyed. 

Cheneso had been raging through the entire country with a wind speed of 118-166 km per hour and made rainfall on the 19th of January 2023 with a 110kmph wind speed. Cheneso is considered to be the first of the annual series of tropical storms that form in the Indian Ocean. Extensive flooding and torrid rainfall had forced the locals to take refuge in other places. Rescue missions were in full swing to save those who were trapped under buildings and stuck in flood waters. 

Red Alert Issued In Madagascar

The red alert had been issued in various parts of Northern Madagascar, like Sava, Dana, and Analanjirofo, due to massive rainfall. To support damage assessment the Copernicus Emergency Management system was activated on 25th January. The main motive was to first safeguard those living on the northeast and eastern coast.

This image was generated by Stable Diffusion

Torrential downpours for 10 days caused the overflow of rivers and other water bodies. Rainfall of about 8-10 inches was observed in the Boeny region. This area is also the one to be severely affected. A few places in Madagascar even reported the rainwater level to be 12 inches. 

Colonel Faly Aritiana stated that houses have been collapsed landslides took place in various parts, which trapped people.

The aftermath of this storm has severely affected the economy of the country. Everything is now being sold at a higher price starting from groceries to day-to-day items. Since communication has been totally cut off, the sudden hike in the prices of the day-to-day commodities has created another difficult situation for the Madagascans. 

This image was generated by Stable Diffusion

The water level is decreasing very slowly and some roads are even now entirely covered with water. People are traveling by using canoes. Food and other medical supplies have been distributed to the people in need. 

Why is Madagascar so Prone to Climate Change?

Madagascar has a population of about 24.4 million people who face several humanitarian challenges. Floods, drought, and cyclones are common due to their geographical location and climatic conditions. Being situated near the southwestern part of the Indian Ocean basin, this African country is mostly exposed to cyclones. 

Cyclones are not only a threat to the local environment but cause massive destruction and a downfall in the economy. Tropical storms are usually caused by the transformation of water vapor from the ocean to the atmosphere, mainly through evaporation. As the warm and moist air slowly goes upwards, it also cools down rapidly, which releases heat through condensation of the water vapor. 

Conclusion:

This image was generated by Stable Diffusion

Cyclone Cheneso has devastated Madagascar and Mozambique. The lashing out of these sudden storms is mainly because of the imbalance in the natural weather cycle. Deforestation and global warming have led to the depletion of the atmospheric layers, which in turn is affecting our climate severely. The downfall in the economy and the loss of life due to storms and tropical cyclones are unbearable. 

Let us stand by the needy and the helpless people who have faced nature’s wrath. Come, join us. Donate food, clothing, and other medical items and daily commodities, or you can also help them financially. A little help and support from your end can make a huge difference in the lives of the ones affected by Cheneso, at the beginning of the new year. 

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References:

World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal. (n.d.). https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/madagascar/vulnerability 

Jazeera, A. (2023, January 30). Cyclone in Madagascar kills dozens, displaces tens of thousands. Weather News | Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/30/cyclone-in-madagascar-kills-dozens-displaces-tens-of-thousands 

Reuters. (2023, January 27). Tropical Storm Cheneso, ensuing rain kill 16 in Madagascar. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tropical-storm-cheneso-ensuing-rain-kill-16-madagascar-2023-01-27/ 

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert  for CHENESO-23 in Madagascar from 18 Jan 2023 04:00 UTC to 19 Jan 2023 04:00 UTC. (n.d.). https://www.gdacs.org/report.aspx?eventid=1000957&episodeid=5&eventtype=TC 

Wikipedia contributors. (2023, February 21). Cyclone Cheneso. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Cheneso#:~:text=The%20origin%20of%20Cheneso%20can,MFR 

Joshi, A. (2023, February 3). Explained: Cyclone Cheneso that is currently wreaking havoc in Madagascar. News9live. https://www.news9live.com/deep-dive/explained-cyclone-cheneso-that-is-currently-wreaking-havoc-in-madagascar-au2206-2044042 

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-01-27/Tropical-storm-Cheneso-ensuing-rain-kill-16-in-Madaga

https://www.pdc.org/weather-wall-updates/tropical-cyclones-15-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2/scar-1gVYPW2hPgY/index.html

Categories
Climate Change Hurricanes

2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1st and ended November 30th. Fourteen storms were named, out of which 2 were major hurricanes.

The NOAA forecast predicted 14 to 21 names of storms with an average speed of 39 mph or higher. Out of them, 6 to 10 were predicted to be potentially massive hurricanes with a speed of 74mph or higher. 3 to 6 were predicted to be destructive with an average wind speed of 111mph or higher. 

The 2022 Hurricane Season

Hurricanes are considered to be one of the most devastating and powerful natural calamities on Earth. Hence scientists at NASA suggest that ordinary people be prepared for such conditions. It is imperative to do everything that is required to ensure safety.

Through our collaborating with Akash Patel during the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season, we have successfully deployed live tropical storm reporting across the globe including live reporting of our hurricane artificial intelligence, HURAIM, for emergency responses. Through our efforts, we have identified a key business value that can provide emergency response teams an hourly product or live forecasts. Reporting is currently being offered through emails, please contact husmani@fluids.ai .

The Different Types Of Hurricane Category

Hurricanes are graded by the National Hurricane Center on a scale of 1-5. One being least fatal and five being life-threatening.

Although Category 1 and 2 cause less damage still, it is always better to take all safety measures against possible cases of injuries and accidents. 

Category 1

Category 1 storms are less dangerous and produce less damage with winds ranging from 74-95mph. Frame homes are susceptible to face damage to the roofs, shingles and siding, and gutters. Shallow-rooted trees might be uprooted and power outages could last a few days. 

Category 2

Category 2 storms are likely to cause more damage than Category 1 storms with winds blowing at 96-110 mph speeds. Homes and buildings are prone to major damage to the siding and the roofs. Innumerable trees can be uprooted and cause blockage of roads. Power outages can last for days to weeks.

Category 3 

Category 3 storms can cause havoc and severely damage homes and other high-rise buildings. Trees can be snapped from the ground and electricity and water may be unavailable for an extended period of time. Wind speed usually recorded is between 111-129mph

Category 4

Category 4 storms are catastrophic, and roofs and outer walls of buildings can be severely affected. Uprooted trees and power poles can isolate an entirely residential area. Power outages can last for weeks to months. Winds usually blow at a  speed of 130 to 156mph.

Category 5

Category 5 storms, in other words are devastating, with a wind speed of 157mph or higher. Snapped trees, collapsed bridges, and buildings can cut all connections in a residential area. Lack of fresh water and food can be witnessed in several places. Power outages can be seen for months, and the entire site becomes inhabitable for long periods. 

The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Complete Forecast

When hurricane season started, NOAA predicted three to six major hurricanes as Category 3 or even higher. The NOAA administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad also stated, “As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past storms — such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area ten years ago — remind us of the impact of one storm can be felt for years.”  

The Names Of The  2022 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones:

  1. Fiona
  2. Danielle 
  3. Julia 
  4. Alex 
  5. Owen
  6. Walter
  7. Paula 
  8. Bonnie
  9. Richard 
  10. Virginie
  11. Colin 
  12. Earl 
  13. Shary
  14. Karl 
  15. Gaston 
  16. Nicole
  17. Richard
  18. Hermine
  19. Martin 
  20. Ian 
  21. Lisa

In 2021, the forecasters ran out of storm names and used certain letters from the Greek alphabet to name a few storms. The meteorologists have decided to pick up a supplemental list of names once they run out of storm names.  

How Are Hurricanes Formed

There are a lot of factors associated with how severe a hurricane can be, as per NOAA. The warmer temperature and climate change are the ruling factors to increase or decrease the speed of a storm. 

The La Nina is a phenomenon that cools the waters of the Pacific and turns the jet stream towards the north. The impacts of hurricanes El Nino and La Nina are more likely to cause turbulence between the Pacific and the Atlantic region – strengthening one part and weakening the other.  

Another primary reason to affect this season was the warm sea temperature mixed with the Atlantic trade winds and the West African Monsoon winds. 

Several studies conducted proved that weather change plays a massive role in deciding the origin and fate of a hurricane. The warm temperature causes the air to hold more moisture and makes the storms stronger, wetter, and more severe. 

The Risks

Hurricanes contribute to landfall along the coastal regions. Anyone who comes across a hurricane’s direct path is in grave danger.

For example, the massive destruction that Hurricane Fiona and Hurricane Ian caused had a significant impact on the lives of the Floridians. Bridges collapsed, communication ceased, destruction of local flora and fauna, collapsed buildings, and uprooted trees caused waterlogging and flooding at various parts. This, in turn, leads to the outbreak of several life-threatening diseases and pathogens.

Hence it is of utmost importance for people to care necessary precautions before the storm lashes out. 

Preventive Measures That Are To Be Taken

  1. Planned Evacuation

Evacuation plans should be fully implemented in a time of distress. Taking shelter in a nearby friend’s home or neighborhood should be accounted for. Bringing pets is also necessary.

  1. Gather Supplies

Gathering enough food and supplies will help you last for a few days is suggested. When the situation outside is bleak, it is always better to stay indoors and take shelter. Cash, battery-powered radios, electronics, and flashlights are of immense importance in case there is a power outage. 

  1. Insurance Policy

It is always suggested to have a strong insurance coverage policy in case there is a danger. If The flooding is massive, a separate flood insurance policy must be made. Although the exact amount cannot be estimated, certain factors are associated with hurricane damage in Florida.

  • Each hurricane policy varies and covers a different amount.
  • The prices usually fluctuate from one carrier to the next.
  • A few parts of the state are considered to be at higher risk.
  • The cost coverage is dependent on the home value.

Whether you are living in your own house or a rented apartment and the value is approximately $250,000, the dwelling cost is the same. Hence if you opt for a 5% hurricane deductible, you would need to pay $12,500, that is $250,000 x 0.05 = $12,500, towards a specific wind-related claim before the insurance company decides to go further with the rest of the hurricane damage cost.  

  1. Repair Your Home

Irrespective of the fact that you are staying elsewhere and not at your home during a hurricane, it is always better to guard your home with aluminum panels, plywood, or steel to make sure your home is ready for the storm.

  1. Brace Yourself

During a time of crisis, it is suggested that you are mentally prepared for the worst outcomes. Prepare yourself before the storm hits. The odds say that when a hurricane knocks at your door and you are not ready, the results are more likely to turn in favor of the hurricane. 

Conclusion

The lashing out of hurricanes causes a threat to human life were extremely high. The downfall in the economy and loss of life is massive. The devastation causes a lack of food and proper shelter, so adequate medical help is not received. Join us in helping out the needy in their time of distress. A little help from your end can create a massive difference in the lives of others. 

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References:

  1. 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. (n.d.). https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/ 
  1. US Census Bureau. (2022, May 26). 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season: June 1-November 30. Census.gov. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/stories/atlantic-hurricane-season.html 
  2. Metz, J. (2022, August 12). Experts Predict “Above Average” 2022 Hurricane Season. Forbes Advisor. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/homeowners-insurance/2022-hurricane-season/ 
  1. The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Here | U.S. Geological Survey. (2022, July 14). https://www.usgs.gov/news/featured-story/2022-atlantic-hurricane-season-here 
  1. Jones, Z. C. (2022, June 4). What to know about the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/atlantic-hurricane-season-2022-forecast-noaa/ 
  1. 2022 Atlantic hurricane season (eggmin) | Hypothetical Hurricanes. . . (n.d.). Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki. https://hypotheticalhurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/2022_Atlantic_hurricane_season_(eggmin)