2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions

Prompt Used: A satellite image of the Atlantic Hurricane

Caption: A Satellite Image Of Hurricane Generated Via DALL-E

The 2022 hurricane season was cataclysmic and one of the most potent events to be ever recorded.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recorded a total of 14 storms, out of which 8 turned into ruinous hurricanes, and 2 were lethal and baneful.

Florida hit rock bottom with total damage worth approximately $112.9 billion, and the loss of flora and fauna was beyond comparison. Hurricane Ian, as per the storm statistic, was the third most expensive hurricane that wiped out Florida after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

2022 has shaken everyone from the core, and people are now bracing themselves for the seasonal hurricane as 2023 is considered to bring larger devastation than customary. Certain research is being conducted regarding El Nino, and research scientist Phil Klotzbach stated that the 2023 hurricane season would be warm and moist with strong winds blowing at a more than average speed.

Activities in the Atlantic Basin

Prompt Used: Digital Art Of Atlantic Hurricane Basin

Caption: Digital Art Of The Atlantic Hurricane Season Generated Via DALL-E

Atlantic Hurricane season usually starts on June 1st and continues till November 30th. The area that falls under the Atlantic basin covers the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

The researchers at North Carolina State University predicted that the 2023 Atlantic Season would comprise a total of 11 to 15 storms. Out of these, six to eight storms can be menacing, and two to three storms can turn into lethal and deadly hurricanes.

Activities in the Gulf Of Mexico will also be significant. Out of the 11 to 15 storms that are likely to form in the entire Atlantic Basin, three to five storms have a high chance of originating in the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, one to three storms have the potential to become a crucial hurricanes, and zero to one may turn into a life-threatening and ghastly hurricane.

El Niño as a Primary Factor

Colorado State University has four models that study the pattern of storms and hurricanes, incorporating 25 to 40 years of data and evaluating certain aspects like –

Prompt Used: A 3D Oil Pastel Render Of Low-Pressure Forming On The Ocean

Caption: Formation Of Low Pressure On Atlantic Basin Generated Via DALL-E

The temperature of the Atlantic Sea surface

Pressures of the sea level
Changes in the speed and direction of the wind flow in accordance with the atmospheric height

El Niño is defined as a band of warm water, usually found in the ocean and responsible for causing rainfall and temperature change globally. This happens due to the influence of either high or low air pressure. This phenomenon can last for up to four years. However, in some cases, it also lasted for about seven years.

The team at CSU considered El Niño to be the primary factor responsible for changes in the 2023 Atlantic season. There are chances of hurricanes being torn apart while forming. El Niño can significantly increase the upper layers of the western winds that flow across the Caribbean and enter the tropical Atlantic zone.

The CSU team stressed the uncertain facts related to the 2023 Atlantic season. Certain conflicting changes were noticed between the warm tropical and subtropical Atlantic seasons and a powerful El Niño.

The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season is considered to be approximately 80 % of all the seasons between 1991 to 2020 and will resemble traits like the ones in 1969, 2004, 2009, 2012, and 2015, stated Klotbach (Research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science)

The wind speed of at least 6 hurricanes out of the total 11 to 15 hurricanes is considered to be 74 mph, and there are chances of two hurricanes to turn into Category 3 or higher with a wind speed of 111mph.

The Hot Spots of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Another aspect of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is the occasional landslides that cease all communications. A number of studies were conducted that stated a couple of hotbeds have higher chances of getting affected in this hurricane season.

Prompt Used: A Water Colour Digital Art Of Coastal Areas During A Hurricane

Caption: Image Of A Coastal Area Hit By A Hurricane Generated Via DALL-E

Eastern Coast of Florida

Hurricane Nicole lashed the shores of the Treasure Coast and made its way to Central Florida on November 10th, 2022. This area has gone through a revival during the winter. However, the chances of landslides are maximum in this area.

Estimated dates: 30th May till 3rd June, 20th to 24th July and lastly between 8th o 13th September.

Western Coast of Florida

Low pressure encircled the Gulf of Mexico and entered Florida on November 1st, 2022. The situation on the western and eastern coasts of Florida is similar, and the chances of landslides are maximum in Pan Florida.

Estimated dates: 22nd to 25th May, 12th to 15th July, and 31st August to 4th September.

Carolina Coast

A considerable amount of low pressure was noticed in the coastal waters of the Atlantic region on 22nd October and 23rd October 2022. As a result, this area poses equal threats for landslides and water clogging.

Estimated dates: 14th to 20th May, 3rd to 10th July, and 23rd to 30th August.

Hurricane Prediction as per the NOAA

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) states their predictions and views related to each year’s Atlantic Season during the month of May.

The NOAA conducts its research by considering the hurricane season forecast for the past 30 years (1992-2021 approximately).

Prompt Used: Pop Art Of A Tornado Uprooting Trees

Caption: Image Of A Deadly Hurricane Uprooting Trees Generated Via DALL-E

The hurricane season usually starts around June and lasts through November. However the gradual climate change can alter the course, and it may begin earlier or later, depending on the current weather conditions.

The intensity of major Hurricanes is generally defined with the help of the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This scale only takes into account the wind speed, jeopardy, and the wind surge but not the rainfall accounted.

Based on this scale, hurricanes are divided into certain categories:

Name	Speed
*CATEGORY 1*	*74-95mph*
*CATEGORY 2*	*96-110mph*
*CATEGORY 3*	*111-129mph*
*CATEGORY 4*	*130-156mph*
*CATEGORY 5*	*157+ mph*

Although the wind speed of each category of hurricane differs, nevertheless it should not be taken lightly. A category 1 hurricane poses a threat to mankind, local flora, and fauna.

Prepare for the Hurricane Season

Prompt Used: Photorealistic Art Of HumansTrapped Under A Collapsed Bridge

Caption: Humans Trapped Under A Collapsed Bride Generated Via DALL-E

As the hurricane season slowly approaches, it is imperative to safeguard the safety of your family, pets, and property.

Here are a few tips and tricks on how you can prepare for the upcoming hurricane season:

Evacuation: Always be prepared for the worst-case scenario. Keep a bag handy with medicines, flashlights, clothes, a first aid kit, and emergency supplies. Search the local routes for safe evacuation and find a place where you can secure your stay.
Safeguarding your residence: Another important preparedness factor is safeguarding your home. Reinforce the walls, windows, doors, and roof. For those items that cannot be carried inside, make sure to secure them with an anchor.
Subscribe to notifications and alerts: If you are staying in an area that has faced the wrath of hurricanes almost every season, it is high time that you sign up for the alerts and notifications. At the same time, you can opt for the NOAA weather radio.

Prompt Used: 3D Cyborg Art Of Hurricane Alert Notification On Mobile Phones

Caption: Image Of Hurricane Alert Notification Generated Via DALL-E

Safeguarding important documents: Keep all your important documents(identity proof, driver’s license, medical records, insurance cards, passports, etc.) inside a waterproof container
Speed dial your emergency contacts: If a hurricane hits, you won’t get much time to prepare yourself in the 11th hour. Thus to ensure your safety, stay updated with the school, work, doctors, rescue services, and family members.

Hurricane Insurances

A hurricane with raging wind and torrential downpours can cause massive damage to your property. Therefore, you should be acquainted with two or three policies:

Flood Insurance: The customary home insurance does not cover the perils of flood damage. Therefore, to save yourself a huge amount of money caused due to flood water damage, sign up for the flood insurance program through the National Flood Insurance Program, or any other private insurance company in your area.
Home Insurance: Home insurances cover the damages that are caused by the main wind. That is if the roof gets damaged due to gusty wind, allowing the rainwater to enter the house, home insurance will compensate for the loss to a considerable amount.

Wind Insurance: 19 states have a hurricane deductible rate that ranges from 1 % to 10% of your residence’s insured value. You might have to get yourself a different wind insurance plan through the different State insurance plans.
Vehicle insurance: Vehicle insurance will compensate you for the damage caused to your vehicle due to the toppling of trees, howling winds, and rainfall.

Conclusion:

Prompt Used: Digital Art Of People United During Flood

Caption: An Image of People Helping Each Other During Flood Generated Via DALL-E

When the hurricane season approaches, it is always suggested to take all the precautionary measures. Stay indoors as much as you can. Stock up on groceries, batteries, and clean water as much as possible.

Nature is unpredictable, therefore it is always better to be a step ahead and safeguard your security.

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References:

Metz, J. (2023, April 17). Experts Predict “Slightly Below Average” 2023 Hurricane Season. Forbes Advisor. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/homeowners-insurance/2023-hurricane-season/